4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 38

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 4-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.56 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model