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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 77

Los Angeles Rams 23 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 6-J.Hekker punt is BLOCKED by 56-J.Carter, Center-44-J.McQuaide, RECOVERED by CAR-39-R.Bonnafon at LA 9. 39-R.Bonnafon to LA 5 for 4 yards (6-J.Hekker).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.85 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model