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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 23

Los Angeles Rams 30 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 4-G.Zuerlein 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.99 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP