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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 42

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 6-J.Hekker punts 7 yards to CAR 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.49 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model