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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 35

Carolina Panthers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(:47) 4-J.Slye 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.54 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 35, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model