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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 61

Cleveland Browns 6 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 7-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to TEN 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.32 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP