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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Cleveland Browns

HC Freddie Kitchens
Sunday 2019-09-08 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

TEN
40.1%
CLE
59.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: +0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 21
–
CLE 24
Projected margin: CLE by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

TEN

Reggie Gilbert LB Out Knee
Kevin Pamphile G Questionable Knee

CLE

Sione Takitaki LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 43
–
CLE 13

Prediction missed by 33 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:18 TD CLE (10:18) 25-D.Hilliard right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – CLE 6
  • Q1 06:36 FG TEN (6:36) 7-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – CLE 6
  • Q2 09:42 TD TEN (9:42) 22-D.Henry right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 9 – CLE 6
  • Q2 01:47 SAF TEN (1:47) 6-B.Mayfield sacked in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (91-C.Wake). CLE-70-K.Lamm was injured during the play. He is Out. TEN 12 – CLE 6
  • Q3 11:58 FG TEN (11:58) 7-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 15 – CLE 6
  • Q3 02:13 TD CLE (2:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 15 – CLE 12
  • Q3 02:10 TD TEN (2:10) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 22-D.Henry for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible offensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TEN 21 – CLE 13
  • Q4 12:39 TD TEN (12:39) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 82-De.Walker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 28 – CLE 13
  • Q4 09:09 TD TEN (9:09) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 82-De.Walker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 35 – CLE 13
  • Q4 03:11 TD TEN (3:11) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 80-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at CLE 38. 21-M.Butler for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 42 – CLE 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 9 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 91%

    (6:36) 7-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 19%

    (2:26) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to CLE 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-30-C.Milton.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (14:57) 7-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to TEN 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:34) 7-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to TEN 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:13) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to CLE 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 28 for 18 yards (44-K.Correa).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 13 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:38) 7-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to TEN 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:00) 6-B.Kern punts 70 yards to CLE 3, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-48-B.Brinkley.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 29%

    (1:04) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to CLE 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-J.Landry.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 17 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 63%

    (11:58) 7-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 36%

    (8:29) 7-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to TEN 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 9 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:58) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to CLE 49, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds. PENALTY on CLE-26-G.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 49. Penalty on CLE-35-J.Whitehead, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 13 at the 48
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 29%

    (5:41) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 13-O.Beckham.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63%

    (1:21) 24-N.Chubb right guard to CLE 34 for 1 yard (59-W.Woodyard).