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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 48

Tennessee Titans 12 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to CLE 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.07 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model