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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 35

Tennessee Titans 12 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 7-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.75 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model