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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 45

Cleveland Browns 6 – Tennessee Titans 15

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 7-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to TEN 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.49 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model