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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 13 – Tennessee Titans 43

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 24-N.Chubb right guard to CLE 34 for 1 yard (59-W.Woodyard).

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.81 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 67, worth -2.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 25, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model