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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 19

Tennessee Titans 0 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 7-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.22 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 19, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 29, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model