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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 6 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 7-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to TEN 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.37 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model