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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 1-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to WAS 14, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 18-T.Quinn.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.86 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 26, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP