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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2019-09-08 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

WAS
23.4%
PHI
76.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.186 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.118 vs Case Keenum (WAS) -0.008 EPA/dropback
  • PHI offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 18
–
PHI 27
Projected margin: PHI by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

WAS

Colt McCoy QB Out Fibula
Fabian Moreau CB Out Ankle
Caleb Brantley DE Questionable Foot
Cassanova McKinzy LB Questionable Concussion
Jordan Reed TE Questionable Concussion

PHI

Kamu Grugier-Hill LB Out Knee
Jordan Mailata T Out Back
Nate Sudfeld QB Out left Wrist

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 27
–
PHI 32

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:08 TD WAS (11:08) 8-C.Keenum pass short right to 85-V.Davis for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-85-V.Davis was injured during the play. WAS 6 – PHI 0
  • Q1 02:51 FG WAS (2:51) 3-D.Hopkins 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 10 – PHI 0
  • Q2 10:07 TD WAS (10:07) 8-C.Keenum pass deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – PHI 0
  • Q2 04:27 TD PHI (4:27) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 10-D.Jackson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 17 – PHI 6
  • Q2 00:04 FG WAS (:04) 3-D.Hopkins 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 20 – PHI 7
  • Q3 07:54 TD PHI (7:54) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 17-A.Jeffery for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – PHI 13
  • Q3 05:15 TD PHI (5:15) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 10-D.Jackson for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – PHI 20
  • Q4 15:00 TD PHI (15:00) 17-A.Jeffery right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – PHI 27
  • Q4 03:12 FG PHI (3:12) 4-J.Elliott 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. WAS 20 – PHI 32
  • Q4 00:12 TD WAS (:12) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short right to 18-T.Quinn for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 26 – PHI 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 17 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:53) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to WAS 19, Center-45-R.Lovato. 18-T.Quinn ran ob at WAS 35 for 16 yards (1-C.Johnston). PENALTY on WAS-50-T.Vallejo, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 30.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 88%

    (2:51) 3-D.Hopkins 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 79%

    (10:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 17-A.Jeffery (94-D.Payne).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (8:10) 1-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to WAS 14, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 18-T.Quinn.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:59) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to PHI 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 38 for 12 yards (82-J.Holtz; 30-T.Apke).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:33) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to PHI 18, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:48) 1-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to WAS 29, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 18-T.Quinn.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:03) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to PHI 36 for 2 yards (98-M.Ioannidis).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:32) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to PHI 30, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 47 for 17 yards (57-N.Sundberg).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:50) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to PHI 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 29 for 14 yards (55-C.Holcomb).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:16) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to PHI 19, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 22 for 3 yards (22-D.Everett).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (3:12) 4-J.Elliott 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 7 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:26) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to WAS 49 for 8 yards (53-N.Bradham).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 12 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 23%

    (1:25) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short right to 25-C.Thompson ran ob at PHI 35 for 18 yards [91-F.Cox].