Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 83

Washington Commanders 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(5:59) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to PHI 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 38 for 12 yards (82-J.Holtz; 30-T.Apke).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.64 EP
62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 83, worth -4.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model