Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Washington Commanders 17

(1:48) 1-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to WAS 29, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 18-T.Quinn.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.55 EP
52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model