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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to PHI 36 for 2 yards (98-M.Ioannidis).

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 24, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model