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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 75

Washington Commanders 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 29

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to PHI 19, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 22 for 3 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.25 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 75, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 32, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model