Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 59

Washington Commanders 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 32

(2:26) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to WAS 49 for 8 yards (53-N.Bradham).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.95 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -1.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model