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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 33

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(9:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.16 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 43, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model