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Arizona Cardinals

0-1-1 HC Kliff Kingsbury
@
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Baltimore Ravens

2-0 HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2019-09-15 · 13:00 ET M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

ARI
16.8%
BAL
83.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.222 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.175 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Kyler Murray (ARI): -0.124 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ARI 16 9–23
–
BAL 30 23–37
Projected margin: BAL by 14 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

ARI

Lamont Gaillard G Out Knee
Jonathan Bullard DE Questionable Hamstring

BAL

Jimmy Smith CB Out Knee
Mark Andrews TE Questionable Foot
Marquise Brown WR Questionable Hip
Tyus Bowser LB Questionable Groin
Mark Ingram RB Questionable Shoulder
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 17
–
BAL 23

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:12 TD BAL (8:12) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 89-M.Andrews for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – BAL 6
  • Q1 02:21 FG ARI (2:21) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 3 – BAL 7
  • Q2 14:11 FG BAL (14:11) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. ARI 3 – BAL 10
  • Q2 08:34 FG ARI (8:34) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 6 – BAL 10
  • Q2 03:53 TD BAL (3:53) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 81-H.Hurst for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – BAL 16
  • Q3 09:02 FG ARI (9:02) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 9 – BAL 17
  • Q4 15:00 FG BAL (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. ARI 9 – BAL 20
  • Q4 12:54 TD ARI (12:54) (Shotgun) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 15 – BAL 20
  • Q4 09:02 FG BAL (9:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. ARI 17 – BAL 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (12:12) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee punts 50 yards to BAL 6, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-28-C.Washington.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ARI 4th & 13 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:43) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee punts 45 yards to BAL 35, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 27-C.Jones. PENALTY on ARI-28-C.Washington, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 35.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 43%

    (4:39) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 15-M.Brown.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.95 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 98%

    (2:21) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 94%

    (14:11) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 33%

    (12:16) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-D.Byrd to BAL 42 for 5 yards (34-A.Averett).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (8:34) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:54) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee punts 57 yards to BAL 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 27-C.Jones pushed ob at BAL 45 for 25 yards (46-A.Brewer).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:03) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to ARI 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at ARI 48 for 21 yards (4-S.Koch). BAL-31-B.Trawick was injured during the play. PENALTY on ARI-54-C.Marsh, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 27.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (9:02) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%

    (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 69%

    (9:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:40) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee punts 56 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 27-C.Jones to BAL 31 for 13 yards (42-D.Gardeck).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 38%

    (3:55) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to ARI 09, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 16 at the 97 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:24) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee punts 59 yards to BAL 38, Center-46-A.Brewer. 27-C.Jones to BAL 45 for 7 yards (47-E.Turner).

    See the full breakdown →