Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 74

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Baltimore Ravens 23

(7:40) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee punts 56 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 27-C.Jones to BAL 31 for 13 yards (42-D.Gardeck).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 74, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model