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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 3 at the 43
Baltimore Ravens 7 – Arizona Cardinals 0
What Actually Happened
(4:39) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 15-M.Brown.
The Three Options
GO
+0.99 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.54 EP
- 47% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 43, worth -1.91 EP
KICK
-0.46 EP
- 43% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
- 57% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT
+0.01 EP
- Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
