Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 60

New York Giants 7 – Buffalo Bills 14

(12:07) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to BUF 2, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-C.Core.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.97 EP
65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 60, worth -3.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model