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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
Sunday 2019-09-15 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

BUF
38.8%
NYG
61.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: +0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): -0.114 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 22
–
NYG 24
Projected margin: NYG by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

BUF

Taron Johnson CB Out Hamstring
Andre Roberts WR Out Quadricep
Tyler Kroft TE Questionable Foot

NYG

Garrett Dickerson TE Out Quadricep
Sterling Shepard WR Out Concussion
Darius Slayton WR Out Hamstring
Cody Latimer WR Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 28
–
NYG 14

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:45 TD NYG (12:45) 26-S.Barkley right end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – NYG 6
  • Q1 03:49 TD BUF (3:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – NYG 7
  • Q2 13:30 TD BUF (13:30) 26-D.Singletary left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – NYG 7
  • Q2 07:36 TD BUF (7:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 19-I.McKenzie for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 20 – NYG 7
  • Q4 12:03 TD NYG (12:03) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 80-T.Jones for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 21 – NYG 13
  • Q4 05:56 TD BUF (5:56) 20-F.Gore left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 27 – NYG 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:30) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to NYG 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to BUF 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 25 for no gain (17-C.Core).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:50) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to BUF 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 30 for 6 yards (31-M.Thomas).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:07) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to BUF 2, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-C.Core.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 79%

    (1:54) 2-A.Rosas 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 18 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:32) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 63 yards to NYG 7, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 80-T.Jones to BUF 33 for 60 yards (33-S.Neal).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:41) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to NYG 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 80-T.Jones pushed ob at NYG 37 for 13 yards (57-L.Alexander).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:10) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to NYG 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 80-T.Jones to NYG 20 for 2 yards (33-S.Neal).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (4:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to BUF 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:21) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to NYG 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 94%

    (13:05) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 12-C.Latimer to BUF 6 for 9 yards (21-J.Poyer). NYG-12-C.Latimer was injured during the play.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:06) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 80-T.Jones.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 53%

    (4:46) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 27 yards to NYG 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (:35) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to NYG 40, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.