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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 29

New York Giants 7 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 2-A.Rosas 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.58 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model