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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 77

Buffalo Bills 21 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to NYG 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 80-T.Jones pushed ob at NYG 37 for 13 yards (57-L.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 77, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 34, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model