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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to NYG 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 72, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 30, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model