Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 69

Buffalo Bills 21 – New York Giants 7

(6:10) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to NYG 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 80-T.Jones to NYG 20 for 2 yards (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.71 EP
53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model