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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 73

New York Giants 7 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to BUF 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.47 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 31, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model