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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 21 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to NYG 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 73, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 31, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model