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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 15

New York Giants 7 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(13:05) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 12-C.Latimer to BUF 6 for 9 yards (21-J.Poyer). NYG-12-C.Latimer was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.10 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 15, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model