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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 58

New York Giants 14 – Buffalo Bills 28

What Actually Happened

(5:06) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 80-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.40 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 58, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.71 EP