Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 77

New York Giants 7 – Buffalo Bills 7

(2:50) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to BUF 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 30 for 6 yards (31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.80 EP
63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 77, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model