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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 50

Cleveland Browns 13 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 7-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to NYJ 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.46 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 50, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model