CLE @ NYJ — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Freddie Kitchens

Home

New York Jets

HC Adam Gase

Monday 2019-09-16 · 20:15 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

CLE

61.9%

NYJ

38.1%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

NYJ offense: -0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
Trevor Siemian (NYJ): -0.185 EPA/dropback in prior starts (NYJ starting Trevor Siemian in place of Sam Darnold)
NYJ defense: +0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
CLE offense: +0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 24

–

NYJ 20

Projected margin: CLE by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

CLE

Dontrell Hilliard RB Out Concussion

Kendall Lamm T Out Knee

Adarius Taylor LB Out Ankle

Damarious Randall S Out Hand

Chris Smith DE Questionable Not Injury Related

Joel Bitonio G Questionable Abdomen

Rashard Higgins WR Questionable Knee

Drew Stanton QB Questionable Knee

NYJ

Sam Darnold QB Out Illness

C.J. Mosley LB Out Groin

Quinnen Williams DT Out Ankle

Demaryius Thomas WR Questionable Hamstring

Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Ankle

Le'Veon Bell RB Questionable Shoulder

Braxton Berrios WR Questionable Hamstring

Alex Lewis G Questionable Shoulder

Steve McLendon DT Questionable Hip

Brian Winters G Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 23

–

NYJ 3

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:30 FG CLE (10:30) 4-A.Seibert 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 3 – NYJ 0
Q1 06:19 FG CLE (6:19) 4-A.Seibert 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 6 – NYJ 0
Q2 10:23 TD CLE (10:23) 24-N.Chubb left tackle for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 12 – NYJ 0
Q2 03:00 FG NYJ (3:00) 9-S.Ficken 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. CLE 13 – NYJ 3
Q2 00:05 FG CLE (:05) 4-A.Seibert 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 16 – NYJ 3
Q3 03:43 TD CLE (3:43) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham for 89 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 22 – NYJ 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 5

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

(10:30) 4-A.Seibert 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
Q1 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 87

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(8:58) 4-L.Edwards punts 55 yards to CLE 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-J.Landry to CLE 48 for 16 yards (42-T.Hennessy).
Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 30

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 78%

(6:19) 4-A.Seibert 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(5:30) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to CLE 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-J.Landry pushed ob at CLE 38 for 18 yards (25-T.Cannon; 45-R.Miles). PENALTY on CLE-92-C.Thomas, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 38.
Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 54

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP

p(convert) 46%

(2:43) 7-J.Gillan punts 37 yards to NYJ 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios. PENALTY on NYJ-99-S.McLendon, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at NYJ 17.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 28

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 81%

(3:00) 9-S.Ficken 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50% p(FG) 30%

(1:03) 7-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to NYJ 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 93

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(:43) 4-L.Edwards punts 33 yards to NYJ 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-45-R.Miles.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 88

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(13:00) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to CLE 39, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-J.Landry to CLE 45 for 6 yards (46-N.Hewitt).
Q3 CLE 4th & 4 at the 49

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP

p(convert) 50% p(FG) 32%

(11:07) 7-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to NYJ 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(9:09) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to CLE 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.
Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(7:18) 7-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to NYJ 24, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 29 for 5 yards (12-K.Hodge).
Q3 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 12

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 52% p(FG) 96%

(3:49) (Shotgun) 8-L.Falk pass short left to 26-L.Bell to CLE 11 for 1 yard (26-G.Williams; 53-J.Schobert).
Q3 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 73

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP

p(convert) 60%

(2:17) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to CLE 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-25-T.Cannon.
Q3 CLE 4th & 2 at the 59

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP

p(convert) 62%

(:43) 7-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to NYJ 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 44

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 44%

(12:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Falk pass short right to 82-J.Crowder to CLE 43 for 1 yard (21-D.Ward). Penalty on NYJ-68-K.Beachum, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Q4 CLE 4th & 16 at the 41 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.84 EP

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 52%

(1:13) 7-J.Gillan punts 30 yards to NYJ 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-20-T.Thomas.