Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 93

New York Jets 3 – Cleveland Browns 13

(:43) 4-L.Edwards punts 33 yards to NYJ 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-45-R.Miles.

The Three Options

GO -3.50 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.33 EP
68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 93, worth -5.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model