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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 88

New York Jets 3 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to CLE 39, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-J.Landry to CLE 45 for 6 yards (46-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.10 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 88, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 46, worth -2.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model