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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 73

New York Jets 3 – Cleveland Browns 23

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to CLE 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-25-T.Cannon.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.46 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 31, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP