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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 44

New York Jets 3 – Cleveland Browns 23

What Actually Happened

(12:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Falk pass short right to 82-J.Crowder to CLE 43 for 1 yard (21-D.Ward). Penalty on NYJ-68-K.Beachum, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.03 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model