Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 87

New York Jets 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

(8:58) 4-L.Edwards punts 55 yards to CLE 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-J.Landry to CLE 48 for 16 yards (42-T.Hennessy).

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.35 EP
68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 87, worth -4.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model