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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 30

Cleveland Browns 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 4-A.Seibert 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.14 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model