Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 71

New York Jets 0 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to CLE 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-J.Landry pushed ob at CLE 38 for 18 yards (25-T.Cannon; 45-R.Miles). PENALTY on CLE-92-C.Thomas, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 38.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
59% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 71, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model