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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 54

Cleveland Browns 6 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 7-J.Gillan punts 37 yards to NYJ 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios. PENALTY on NYJ-99-S.McLendon, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at NYJ 17.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 54, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP