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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 78

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 6-C.Jones punts 52 yards to WAS 26, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 18-T.Quinn.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 35, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model