Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- WAS offense: -0.159 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- DAL offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- WAS defense: +0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.172 EPA/dropback in prior starts
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 2
WAS
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 14:18 TD WAS (14:18) 52-R.Anderson, 66-T.Bergstrom and 74-G.Christian reported in as eligible. 26-A.Peterson right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – WAS 6
- Q2 06:18 TD DAL (6:18) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 15-D.Smith for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – WAS 7
- Q2 00:13 TD DAL (:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 82-J.Witten for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – WAS 7
- Q3 10:04 TD DAL (10:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 19-A.Cooper for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 20 – WAS 7
- Q3 04:37 TD WAS (4:37) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short middle to 10-P.Richardson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 21 – WAS 13
- Q4 13:51 FG DAL (13:51) 2-B.Maher 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. Penalty on WAS-32-J.Moreland, Defensive Offside, declined. DAL 24 – WAS 14
- Q4 05:11 TD DAL (5:11) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 30 – WAS 14
- Q4 02:20 TD WAS (2:20) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 31 – WAS 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(12:47) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to DAL 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-R.Cobb to DAL 10 for 4 yards (22-D.Everett).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 84Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 54%
(11:14) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to WAS 35, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 18-T.Quinn pushed ob at WAS 44 for 9 yards (49-J.Olawale; 23-D.Thompson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 WAS 4th & 3 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 29%
(8:47) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to DAL 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DAL 4th & 13 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(12:57) 6-C.Jones punts 52 yards to WAS 26, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 18-T.Quinn.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(4:41) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to DAL 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 31Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 74%
(6:38) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short middle to 18-T.Quinn to DAL 19 for 12 yards (30-A.Brown).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%
(13:51) 2-B.Maher 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. Penalty on WAS-32-J.Moreland, Defensive Offside, declined.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 36%
(11:07) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass incomplete short right to 25-C.Thompson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 6 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%
(2:53) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to DAL 1 for 5 yards (31-B.Jones).
See the full breakdown →
