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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 31

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(6:38) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short middle to 18-T.Quinn to DAL 19 for 12 yards (30-A.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.54 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 31, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 41, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP