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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 84

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to WAS 35, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 18-T.Quinn pushed ob at WAS 44 for 9 yards (49-J.Olawale; 23-D.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.30 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 84, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 42, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP