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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 7

Dallas Cowboys 21 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(13:51) 2-B.Maher 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. Penalty on WAS-32-J.Moreland, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 7, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model